NB: There are 577 races (and therefore seats) in total.

Resolves Yes, if, after the official results of the first round of the 2024 French snap legislative election, to be held on June 30th, the party of Macron, Renaissance, and/or any parties in an electoral union that contain the Renaisance party (nb: an electoral union will count if it has a single candidate for the union in each race), if the union was declared before the first round, has candidate remaining in less than 70 seats/race. Resolves No otherwise.

Note that the second round usually has two candidate, but can have three or even four if certain vote threshold are met (basically, if there really is about the same number of vote among the three or four - but the rule is a little convoluted and kinda rare, there were 8 last time), in which case candidate from Macron's party in such "triangulaire" or "quandrangulaire" would count for this market.

Not binding flavor text: the spirit of the question is whether Macron's party will be functionally wiped from the national assembly, which some polls/results based on European election results suggest (but European election are national level, whereas seats are local and therefore personalities and local dynamics make this much more difficult to gage from polls)