From CNN:
Macron gambles on snap election after crushing loss to French far right in EU vote
After initial projections, the far-right National Rally (RN) party came out on top with 31.5% of the vote, more than double the share of Renaissance, which scraped into second place on 15.2% of the vote, just ahead of the Socialists in third with 14.3% of the vote.
In a celebratory speech after the publication of the exit poll, RN leader Jordan Bardella had called on Macron to dissolve the French parliament, calling the gap between the two parties a “stinging disavowal” for the president.
This market is a clone of a question on Polymarket—I include their full resolution criteria below, and I will follow their resolution.
This is a two stage election—this market will close the night before the first stage on June 30th.
Resolution Details
French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if National Rally (Rassemblement National) or any coalition of which it is part controls a majority of seats in the French National Assembly, specifically 289 or more seats, as a result of the next French Legislative Election.
Only coalitions which are formally announced before the start of the second round of voting (currently scheduled for July 7) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If National Rally does not enter into a coalition prior to the second round of voting, this market will resolve solely based off the number of seats won by the National Rally party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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