Conditional on Biden dropping out, who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President? [Add answers]
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6.5k
Sep 30
36%
Other
35%
Kamala Harris
21%
Gavin Newsom
7%
Pete Buttigieg

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I would avoid conditional markets without a "Biden doesn't drop out" option, because of Manifold's new policy on N/A resolutions

Isn’t that importantly different than a conditional markets?

yes, but that's the point: Manifold is trying to discourage conditional markets to avoid N/A resolutions

Fair enough. I just probably wouldn’t describe this as a conditional market at all then. It’s a normal market where one of the outcomes is “not condition X”.

Btw, is there a link to this recent policy? I looked around the FAQ and stuff but couldn’t find anything that suggested they were discouraging clearly articulated conditions where the market would resolve as N/A.

@benshindel What is Manifolds new policy? I can't find it anywhere

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