Global Average Temperature June 2024 per gistemp LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period

Climate Global Warming Climate change Weather

Basic

Ṁ5.2k

Jul 14

ALL

97%

June 2024 greater than 1.085

93%

June 2024 greater than 1.155

88%

June 2024 greater than 1.205

70%

June 2024 greater than 1.255

Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)

January 2024 might show as 122 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.22C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.

If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.

Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C does not resolve an exceed 1.205C option as yes.

Get Ṁ600 play money

Related questions

Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?

74% chance

Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2023?

67% chance

Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?

71% chance

How will the average global temperature in 2024 compare to 2023? (as reported by NASA)

Will any month in 2024 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?

18% chance

Will June 2024 be the hottest June on record?

96% chance

Will average world temperature for 2024 be higher than 2023?

73% chance

Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?

46% chance

Global temperature anomaly in 2050

1.8

Will the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?

Sort by:

https://polymarket.com/event/june-2024-temperature-increase-c?tid=1720186157536

Prices look odd there?

1.26C is my final prediction since all the data is in.

GIS TEMP anomaly projection (June 2024) (assuming 0 error):  1.260

Calculations for % tying for given anomaly ranges:
Error to tie monthly exceedance of 1.085 C (for June 2024): -0.175
% of years for June that have error > than the error needed to tie for exceedance of 1.085 C June 2024
  (% chance of (tying or) not breaking anomaly record for June): 100.00 %
Error to tie monthly exceedance of 1.155 C (for June 2024): -0.105
% of years for June that have error > than the error needed to tie for exceedance of 1.155 C June 2024
  (% chance of (tying or) not breaking anomaly record for June): 100.00 %
Error to tie monthly exceedance of 1.205 C (for June 2024): -0.055
% of years for June that have error > than the error needed to tie for exceedance of 1.205 C June 2024
  (% chance of (tying or) not breaking anomaly record for June): 89.47 %
Error to tie monthly exceedance of 1.255 C (for June 2024): -0.005
% of years for June that have error > than the error needed to tie for exceedance of 1.255 C June 2024
  (% chance of (tying or) not breaking anomaly record for June): 52.63 %

bought Ṁ10 June 2024 greater th... YES

Looks joeover (for NO bettors on the related main market) for the rest of the month (trend is only rising temps where as ERA5 averages from 2023 trend downward).

(Does that meme work here?)