![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FDismalScientist%2F345uukgvne.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Will Trump or Biden get a post-debate bump?
Basic
27
Ṁ5.5kJul 9
1D
1W
1M
ALL
6%
Under .5 percentage point shift either way
3%
.5-1 percentage point shift to Biden
16%
.5-1 percentage point shift to Trump
2%
1-2 pp shift to Biden
33%
1-2 pp shift to Trump
1.2%
2-5 pp shift to Biden
28%
2-5 pp shift to Trump
1.2%
Over 5 pp shift to Biden
9%
Over 5 pp shift to Trump
Resolves according 538’s polling average among polls conducted in 10 days after the debate vs. polling average pre-debate. “Shift” means change in gap between Trump and Biden.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
Will Trump and Biden have a debate with a live in-person audience before the election?
23% chance
Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate each other twice before the 2024 US presidential election?
49% chance
Will a second presidential debate take place between Trump and Biden in 2024?
38% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in these swing state polls on November 1st?
Will Biden win a debate?
12% chance
If Joe Biden debates Donald Trump for a second time before the 2024 election, will Biden win? (from polls)
16% chance
Will the stock market respond more positively if Biden wins the election over Trump?
54% chance
Will there be a 2nd debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 election cycle?
46% chance
Will Biden or Trump outperform their polling?
Will Biden or Trump use performance enhancing drugs prior to tonight's debate?
24% chance