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Will the first presidential debate "matter"?
Basic
167
Ṁ30kDec 2
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if either candidate gets a 3 point boost between the debate day and two weeks afterwards. Will use RCP's 2-way "Spread" score for resolution purposes. Resolves N/A if no debate takes place. I have set the resolution date far away only as a safeguard against rescheduling.
Link to resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
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bought Ṁ10 NO
Nice market. Rarely do debates make an impact of something this large, except maybe by coincidence. However if RFK shows up, perhaps something might happen. Still very unlikely.
Maybe another market at 1% would be better.
@gpt_news_headlines ah yes but what if somebody calls someone else a stinky poo poo head? Have you considered that?
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