![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FNermitBundaloy%2F979e103ddbfe.jpg%3FGoogleAccessId%3Dmantic-markets%2540appspot.gserviceaccount.com%26Expires%3D16447017600%26Signature%3DTJd%252BKFp3irdP7hvKmpXmBWqohM9AXr2sVOQTiZDu38ztOrMVRkAUT2N635RAwV%252FxTZPkBsCvW2n6QHFEhiJTW87wjUoiY%252B6kmlA8mACEsiXJnogpKjWEqXcnRl%252Fn7Cre9un%252B13b4BlqpIBRjAmpH8KOhnkwCuE85vg8EjYXn59Wb6aBn%252BmBjy1RZuU9jF%252FYRPrdvrQ21yFkOhWt300pGWy1lBvnk9XKCXfw1rpua7mtV%252FDcvO%252BIh6OYxMgT%252BQCt6QM%252BMjuM5nrtgg0fjPMweCZUNi7ZecKXZm2U1xTNzV1o5dDXJOI5YflwMQLEikwH7Pu9TgvUbuEFAhKa%252B3zOXzw%253D%253D&w=3840&q=75)
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Resolution based on IEA. Having previously said it would be in 2025, the IEA now thinks it could happen in 2024, “as a result of the accelerated pace of renewable capacity additions” and “the plateauing of electricity generation from coal.”
Related questions
Looking at Our World in Data, I get 10,200 TWh of electricity from coal in 2022, with renewables accounting for ~8,500 TWh. IEA now predicts "Higher renewable growth than overall electricity demand growth is likely to push global coal consumption on a downward trajectory. This would imply that coal is likely to peak in 2023. " (https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2023/demand)
And renewable energy in terms of solar and wind, has been growing by 30+% per year recently, suggesting around 300+ TWh growth in solar and 600+ TWh growth in wind, in 2023. If that growth rate didn't compound, just stayed at +900 TWh for renewables in 2024, and coal didn't peak, just stayed where it is, then 2024 would be at 10,200 twh coal, 10,300 TWh renewables.