Since it’s likely not to be clarified by question owner, I guess it’s worth explicitly saying the resolution criteria I have assumed while betting on this market, based on previous comments by several users:

• If Trump is imprisoned or serves house arrest (before or after a criminal conviction) before 1/31/25 (market close), resolves YES

If other bettors have been betting on different assumptions, it might be good to discuss this now instead of at market close.

@AdamK I don't have a strong opinion about this, but I could imagine counting pre conviction imprisonment.

@BenjaminIkuta If Trump is imprisoned pre-conviction, I think it would be fair to say he’s “doing time.” I agree with you, and I’ll edit my earlier comment

@AdamK this is also how I was interpreting it. I'll avoid having a position here so I can keep an eye on this as a mod.

Super confused

Arb opp (assuming prison or house arrest by 1/31/25) https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned

When will Trump serve time?

Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. What counts? Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts. Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count. It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

@Gigacasting You never responded to requests to clarify this market. Title should probably be changed to “Will Trump do time by 2025?”

Does this market use the same criteria as the above market in terms of house arrest counting toward “doing time”?

Why does this resolve in 2025? What if trials extend further?

Would time include house arrest?

I assume this resolves at closing time?