Congressional leaders have agreed to pass yet another laddered CR. The current plan is to extend government funding until March 1st for some agencies, and March 8th for others.
Will the US government shut down before 3/15/24?
Full shutdown definition, curtesy Metaculus:
This question resolves as Yes if credible sources report that at least some portions of the US federal government have ceased some operations or undergone "shutdown" as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline. For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a shutdown furlough of some federal employees (for example, the brief February 9, 2018 shutdown would not count).
If legislation is passed and signed into law which guarantees the US Government will be funded past March 15th, the market will resolve No early.
For more markets about the potential shutdown, see the Dashboard.
1,000
3.00Resolves No, as some agencies are now funded through March 22nd and the rest are funded through September 30th. I've made markets for both of those cliffs:
And there's still the overall shutdown dashboard and the Q1 shutdown market:
Biden signed the $460 billion package of six spending bills, which passed the Senate earlier Friday. The package funds military construction, water development and the departments of Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Energy, Interior, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development.
Though the funding deadline was midnight Friday, agencies did not shut down and were able to continue normal operations because Congress had passed the relevant appropriations and federal funds are incurred and tracked on a daily basis, the White House said.
....
Senators will now work to pass the remaining six appropriations bills funding the Departments of Defense, Labor, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security and other priorities before the March 22 deadline.
Unless I'm missing something, I believe funding is now guaranteed past the 15th and per this market's description it can now resolve "No."
We might get a bit messy here, as it looks like Biden might not sign the bill the senate passed by midnight.
I'm going to see how this is reported, and how other markets like this handle the edge case. Trade with caution until we iron out the technicalities.
For this market's criteria, I initially just had "will the US government shutdown for any amount of time before 3/15/24", and I wish I had been more specific. My intention was to use the same definition as the metaculus criteria. Those criteria are:
This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that at least some portions of the US federal government have ceased some operations or undergone "shutdown" as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline. For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a shutdown furlough of some federal employees (for example, the brief February 9, 2018 shutdown would not count).
And they are used for this mirrored question:
Are there any objections to editing this into the description now?
Republican senators are seeking votes on multiple amendments, including one particularly problematic request from Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.). His proposal would ensure undocumented immigrants aren't counted toward the population when divvying up congressional seats.
"And Chuck Schumer is ready to shut the government down to avoid having to vote on that," Hagerty told POLITICO.
"They don't want to say the quiet part out loud," he said. "And that is: Right now, illegal migrants are being used to allocate congressional districts and electoral votes. The American public doesn't want that. Everybody that I talked with is shocked that it's happening."
As to whether there will be a partial government shutdown just after midnight, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Friday: "Ask the Republicans."
Even if a partial shutdown does occur, Republicans holding up a final passage vote would eventually see their hand forced by the Senate's clock — with the legislation remaining on track to pass Saturday, resulting in no meaningful disruption to funded agencies by Monday.
Related markets based on how long the shutdown will last if it happens and when funding will be passed:
/SimonGrayson/how-long-will-the-2024-us-governmen
/SimonGrayson/when-will-the-us-government-pass-fu-5f8f30dd1b94
