Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.
Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)
*Starship near-orbits don't count
Not looking good for a 2024 launch for RS1 ๐ข
That's bad on all sorts of fronts
Starship IFT-3 and IFT-4 both did not reach an orbital trajectory. Ift-3 planned a reignition-burn-test but ultimately didn't use it, and the trajectory they were in still went straight into the Indian Ocean. The plan was that if they did test the reignition burn then they'd end up a bit further West in the Indian Ocean.
So it's not about requiring a full revolution or not. Starship has simply never been on any path or trajectory where it could theoretically make that full revolution.
To be absolutely clear:
They literally had to burn for reentry so as not to stay up there.
This is false, and I think that's the miscommunication going on here.
This article states that the CASC XLV is actually the Long March 12 (which would explain why we haven't heard anything about the XLV and why they were both set to launch start of June when the new launchpad opened), though I can't find any other sources explicitly stating that so I'm not a 100% sure.
Also not sure if that would mean that the XLV was another name for it, or maybe they wanted to keep the fact that it was the LM 12 a secret, or maybe it was even a mistranslation?
Either way though, if it does turn out to be the same rocket, how would you resolve the two answers?
@JoshuaWilkes Oops yeah I linked it in the first word of my comment but I hadn't realised how non-visible that is lol, here you go: https://spacenews.com/long-march-6a-launches-second-yunhai-3-satellite/
It's right at the bottom of the article
@Nat my sense is that the best thing to do right now is to leave both open. If it turns out they are not the same rocket, then it's all good.
If they are, then in principle I can't see anything wrong with both resolving YES or NO simultaneously. Not ideal obviously but on balance seems fairer than resolving XLV (I believe the second one to be added) to NO now
What counts as 'reaching orbit'? Does it have to be an Earth orbit or would a Mars orbit count, or is it based on reaching orbital velocities? And does it count based on when the launch occurs or when the orbit is achieved? (Particularly thinking in regards to EscaPADE which I believe is supposed to be launched directly into an interplanetary trajectory - but also would just be useful to know in general)
@Nat Earth orbit
If any vehicle is launch directly onto an interplanetary trajectory that would count too.
In the unlikely case of a launch close to midnight of December 31st as long as the launch started prior to midnight local time it would count if it subsequently reached orbit