Will Joe Biden endorse Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party Presidential Nomination before the end of July?
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Resolves YES if Joe Biden endorses Kamala Harris to be the nominee instead of himself before the end of July 2024 in Pacific Time. Otherwise resolves NO on August 1st.
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Seems pretty correlated with "will Biden drop out by end of July" market.
https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec
Small arb opportunity perhaps if these diverge.
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