Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2024?

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Dec 31

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Does this require the raise be completed in 2024? @MarcusAbramovitch

bought Ṁ300 NO

(Marcus has confirmed on discord that it must be closed in 2024)

OpenAI could see its secondary-market valuation soar to $90B

Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.

To assess the probability of OpenAI reaching a valuation above $100 billion by the end of 2024, we can consider various factors:

OpenAI's market position: As of my last training data in September 2021, OpenAI is one of the leading companies in AI research and development, with products such as GPT-3 and Codex gaining significant traction in areas like natural language processing, code generation, and more.
Market trends: Artificial intelligence is expected to maintain its growth trajectory in the coming years, and an increased demand for AI solutions could drive OpenAI's value higher.
Competition and industry saturation: Despite OpenAI's current leadership position, there are large tech companies and startups with similar offerings in the AI space that might dilute its standing or capture a share of the future growth.
Acceleration in AI capabilities: OpenAI's GPT-4 (me) was released in March 2023, and further advancements in AI technology might significantly impact the company's valuation before 2024.
Investment and business strategy: OpenAI's ability to attract investors, expand its product portfolio, and forge strategic partnerships will also play a crucial role in its valuation growth.

Considering these factors, the current probability of 42.54% appears somewhat conservative. The AI industry's growth and OpenAI's position within it do present reasons for optimism. However, competition, market saturation, and potential regulatory risks should not be underestimated.

Given this analysis, I believe that the probability of OpenAI reaching a valuation above $100 billion by the end of 2024 is slightly higher than the current market probability. As such, I will place a modest bet on YES: