A new type of margin of victory market that we don’t even need election results for! Based on the AP VoteCast survey conducted the weeks up to the election, released Election Day, what will the gender gap be between Trump and Harris?

Gender gap here is calculated by Trump’s polled margin of victory among men minus his margin of victory among women. (Note this is different than how Wikipedia counts it. I disagree with their methodology because they totally ignore shifts in men.)

In 2020, he won men by 5 and lost women by -12, so the gender gap was 17. https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/929478378/understanding-the-2020-electorate-ap-votecast-survey

In 2016 (before VoteCast was launched), he won men by 12 and lost women by -12, so the gender gap was 24. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html

What will it be in 2024?