Taking the description of this market literally and assuming it resolves on the 22nd of November, the resolution should probably be NO, because according to Dave Leip's numbers, she currently still has less than 74,225,926 votes, which might not change until the 22nd.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2024&f=0&off=0&elect=0

@ChaosIsALadder close date is not resolve date, I've extended the close date multiple times already

@ChaosIsALadder She’s already exceeded the count according to Bloomberg FWIW. For some reason they’re further ahead on the count than any other source I’ve found.

Kamala will exceed 74,225,926 by a comfortable margin.

If you look at the number of remaining votes for each state as estimated by nbcnews.com: CA, NJ, and IL alone total 2,195,000. Conservatively estimating that she will get half of those votes (those are all blue states), that brings her total to 73,169,047 + 2,195,000/2 = 74,266,547, which is already enough.

Literally wtf happened with this market? Free mana.

@benshindel people forgot california existed

i eyeballed it ngl

@Tripping nah, for a little while on election night, turnout really seemed lower than expected. This combined with Harris's apparently abysmal performance made people (myself included) think that she couldn't possibly beat Trump 2020 votes.

@benshindel Wish I was paying attention when this market got under 10%...hello?

@SentientTree @benshindel nah, you can make more profits at this prob, come to the dark side : )

@3d well there’s also that. It will be surprisingly close.

/mattyb/will-trump-get-more-votes-in-2024-t