꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
The Mark My Words series takes actionable and popular posts from the Mark My Words subreddit and turns them into a prediction market. Hope you enjoy the format!
https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1f65sym/mmw_donald_will_lose_the_military_vote_by_a/
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Credible exit polls or post-election surveys from reputable organizations (e.g., Edison Research, AP VoteCast, Military Times) show that less than 40% of military voters (active duty and veterans) voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
The market will resolve as "No" if:
Such polls or surveys show that 40% or more of military voters supported Trump.
The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:
No credible exit polls or post-election surveys specifically addressing military voting are conducted or released within 3 months of the election.
Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election.
Resolution Sources:
Official exit polls from Edison Research (used by major news networks)
AP VoteCast survey results
Military Times election surveys
Other reputable polling organizations that specifically survey military voters
Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on Election Day 2024 and will be resolved once credible poll results are available, or by February 1, 2025, whichever comes first.Additional Notes:
"Military vote" includes both active duty personnel and veterans
If multiple credible polls show conflicting results, an average will be taken
The 40% threshold is chosen based on historical voting patterns, as Republican candidates typically receive over 50% of the military vote
