Conditional on Donald Trump selecting Marco Rubio as VP nominee, who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
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22
Ṁ3992resolved Jul 15
ResolvedN/A
1D
1W
1M
ALL
60%
Donald Trump
22%
Joe Biden
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
15%
Other
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Looking across the conditional Rubio/Burgum/Scott/Vance markets, the Vance one strikes me as odd, roughly Trump 70% versus Trump 60% for the others. That's not the odd part though -- it's that the difference is made up from "other" rather than from Biden! Is the implication that Vance would be relatively helpful to Trump's chances if Biden is not the D nominee, but not otherwise?
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