What will be the turnout in 4 July 2024 UK General election?
Basic
28
11k
resolved Jul 6
100%30%
60-65%
0.8%
50-55%
66%
55-60%
0.7%
65-70%
0.4%
70-75%
0.9%
75-80%
0.8%
80%+

I’m resolving this to 60%. That’s the reported turnout with one seat left to declare and I can only see upside risks to the number at this stage, e.g. postal ballots coming in.

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Guardian reporting 59.9% on their liveblog, referencing PA.

"The overall turnout for the general election was the lowest it has been for more than 20 years, PA new agency is reporting.

The overall turnout was 59.9%, a sharp decrease from the 67.3% that voted at the 2019 election."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/06/keir-starmer-labour-cabinet-meeting-uk-general-election-conservatives-leadership?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66898a9d8f08b8c654ee6c60#block-66898a9d8f08b8c654ee6c60

Which figure was this resolved based on?

The description was updated, apparently based on 60.0% from the BBC news reporting. Not sure this is actually the right decision, I would assume that the figure is (1) rounded and (2) based on the electorate in seats currently declared

@Numnumduck Given that it's exactly on the boundary shouldn't this resolve 50% each for the 2 top options?

Yes have used BBC figure cross-checked with other news sites. 60% is consistent figure across sources. Full and final figure will come from Electoral Commission but not for many days. As far as I can see, all change risks are on upside.

If it's possible to unresolve I think it'd be better to wait for the final figure from the EC, no harm in keeping this open for a few days until it's all done and dusted.

bought Ṁ35 60-65% YES

The turnout is being reported as 60.0% (with two seats left to declare). We need more precision!

Two seats still to declare!

Oddly, I couldn't find the total number of eligible voters. I wonder if those are reported by each constituency after the fact.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/results => Registered voters: 48,214,128

bought Ṁ150 60-65% YES

Also calculated the the valid votes cast; 28,747,397 which translates to valid vote turnout of 59.62% (without Inverness and friends). Based on the maximum constituency size it'll get bumped to 59.72%

However, it's my understanding that usually people talk about the ballot box turnout, i.e. valid votes + rejected votes; for the latter I have no numbers.

Historically spoiled ballots have been about 0.2-0.3% of the vote (not very helpful here though!) although this time they might be higher due to the increase in postal voting post-COVID combined with the much stricter postal vote verification rules.

I think we'll need to wait for the EC or some other organisation to calculate some official numbers, or somebody is going to have to tabulate the results from each constituency manually!

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