Great market, thank you for running it!

Thank you to the Manifold staff members who commented in on this market. I appreciated the input. ❤️

@traders I have reviewed the evidence I collected. None of my screenshots in the market window were observed to show Manifold.Markets down. Nobody seems to have presented any evidence in these comments of a crash or site-down. I have looked through the "announcements" and "updates" Discord channels for any comments on the site being down. I have looked at Twitter/X's page for Manifold. I did not see anything in regard to a site crash or down. I'll spend the next few minutes looking for all posts by Manifold team members in the Discord on any of the public channels. Assuming that clears, I will attempt to resolve this market to NO between 9:30pm and 10pm EST unless anybody shows me something I've missed. Last call!

Hilariously, by sheer dumb luck, when I sat down at my computer to begin this analysis, I found this absolute beauty of a screenshot on my desktop. This was the last screenshot my program took before I closed it down at Nov 6, 2024 @ 7:52pm EST. (The ping was from the minute before that.) This was not during the market window, so it does not affect the outcome of this market, but this proves that it is possible for the site to ping as not up.

I do not interpret any comments made since Nov 5, 2024 @ midnight up until now by anybody with an "admin" or "core team" rank in the Discord to be regarding a crash that occurred during the market window. I am still convinced NO is the best resolution.

PS

I also checked Ian's comments in the Discord.

im selling to close out my position. i think it didn't crash, but the spike to 22% is from me exiting the trade.

840 people online rn. probably passed the peak traffic. and the bet api is holding up. I'm optimistic

Monitoring is live. The window opens at midnight. Let the games begin.

Logistically speaking, I will have to review the evidence after work, so give me until the evening on Wednesday to review the evidence I collect.

@traders I've performed a visual scan of all screenshots collected so far. No downs detected yet, but there was this image from 03:42 EST that showed the site still loading after the 5 second delay between reloading and screen capturing. This image is inconclusive and does not resolve YES. I have made a hot fix to the program and changed the wait time from a 55 second wait to reload plus 5 second wait until a screenshot to a 30 second wait to reload plus 30 second wait to screenshot. This should screen out these inconclusive shots and maintain the same 60 second cycle time. I will perform another check tomorrow, and this question will be locked for several hours before it resolves.

This was the only screenshot that was not an explicit "it's up" so far.

On a side tangent, Netflix is registered as down right now. My condolences to anybody who wanted to watch Don't Look Up.

@Quroe we run heavy scheduled jobs in the early morning then, so it'd make sense if the site was slower than normal

@traders I have a ChatGPT authored python code that I can run on a computer that reloads the https://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/manifold.markets?proto=https web page and takes a screen shot once per minute. I'll leave it up on my computer for a few hours and see if it works as intended. If so, I'll post the code so traders can keep me honest and use it themselves if they trust arbitrary python code they found on the internet.

It requires that you "sacrifice" your PC for data collection since it is basically a macro for the reload and screenshot shortcuts, but it works. I probably could have done this with a dedicated website monitoring program, but I think this is the best way to monitor this without somebody calling me out for changing the rules.

Seems like it works. I will post below the code and libraries needed for it.

(edited image to not dox myself)

To be pasted into a command prompt:

python -m pip show pyautogui

python -m pip show Pillow

python -c "import tkinter; tkinter._test()"

pip install pyautogui Pillow

import time

import pyautogui

import tkinter as tk

import threading

# Function to automate reloading and taking a screenshot

def automate_browser():

while True:

try:

# Press the keyboard shortcut to reload the page

pyautogui.press('f5') # Reload the page

# Wait for 5 seconds to ensure the page is fully loaded

time.sleep(5)

# Take a screenshot

timestamp = time.strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S")

screenshot_filename = f"website_status_{timestamp}.png"

pyautogui.screenshot(screenshot_filename)

print(f"Screenshot saved as {screenshot_filename}")

# Update the tkinter label to show the last successful check

status_label.config(text=f"Last action: {timestamp}")

except Exception as e:

print(f"An error occurred: {e}")

status_label.config(text=f"An error occurred: {e}")

# Wait for 55 seconds before repeating

time.sleep(55)

# Function to start the automation in a separate thread

def start_automation():

automation_thread = threading.Thread(target=automate_browser, daemon=True)

automation_thread.start()

# Setup tkinter GUI

root = tk.Tk()

root.title("Website Automation Monitor")

root.geometry("300x150")

# Create and pack the status label

status_label = tk.Label(root, text="Monitoring started...", font=("Arial", 12))

status_label.pack(pady=20)

# Create and pack the close button

close_button = tk.Button(root, text="Close", command=root.quit)

close_button.pack(pady=10)

# Start the automation

start_automation()

# Start the tkinter event loop

root.mainloop()

It puts the photos in the same folder the Python code is in.

@traders I became aware that Manifold has a Discord. To clarify the original description, that would count as a source of a public statement. Posts from official Manifold accounts in the Discord can count for crash announcements that can resolve this market YES.

I have updated the description to clarify this.

So from the title (and recent manifold site issues) I assumed this was an easy YES, but if the bar is (1) ping test and (2) official statement on X, I don’t think this will capture what people care about and it’s most likely NO.

When manifold “crashes”, the normal symptom is your bets don’t go through. This happens long before the site itself crashes. And people tend to stop using the site once their bets go through. Maybe when they restart the site, that’ll be noticed by downdetector? But I’m not sure it will be.

And the official statement on X Is an odd bar—manifold doesnt normally use X that way, you go to discord for that.

So I’m not sure e.g. the major site crash during Biden dropping out (or the many site crashes since then) would have met this bar. And I’d warn people against betting in this market assuming it lines up whatsoever with what people normally mean by a “site crash” (I’d probably just avoid this market entirely)

@Ziddletwix I expect "making a public statement (such as on Twitter/X) reporting a crash or outage." to include a Discord announcement. See https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/994321335419420832/1295497803522506853

Terribly sorry I didn't see this earlier. I want to count discord statements, but before I hold myself to that, I want to take a peek into the Discord server to see what to expect. I'm trying to use the link above to get in, but that doesn't seem to be working for me. Would somebody be able to send me the invite?

My app was just buggy. I found a link.

@nikki The other comments made it sound like it had to be a Twitter post (I believe someone mentioned discord earlier and it wasnt acknowledged as an option). If d discord acknowledgment is allowed, that changes things, and the market is plausible again.

Although most outages are not formally “announced” on discord, a staff just posts in the main channel that they’re working on it. So even using the “announcements” channel on discord is a bar that most previous outages wouldn’t clear.

Just flagging that people should Know what they’re betting on and it may Not

Match the title. I’d check how many previous outages meet the defined bar

@Ziddletwix So I poked around in there, and if I saw something to the effect of this image, I would count it as YES criteria being met! Yes, I used Tiwtter/X as an example of what I would count, but I did not intend for it to be the be-all-end-all definition of a public statement.

I was not aware of a Manifold Discord until a few minutes ago. I'm glad this exists!

@Quroe Great that works! And yes it’s unfortunate that discord is the

Main way they do (Official communication lmao

@Ziddletwix The announcement you posted earlier in this thread is an interesting case. See image. Following through it all, there's some context in this one that I think requires some explanation.

The market linked speaks of underlying issues existing that can cause crashes, but unless a crash actually occurs, it would not resolve YES. To word it another way, if the site load crosses the threshold and enters the "burstable zone," but the host keeps the site running, and Manifold manages to recover without running out of burstable runtime credits, that's not a YES. However, if they say they had to restart the server, I would count that as a YES.

Context matters. There is some "if a tree falls in the forest, and nobody hears it, does it make a sound?"-ness to this market. Somebody has to catch the site being down or Manifold has to admit to it to resolve YES.

I'm considering taking a crack at writing up a rudimentary script that reloads the ping test page once per minute and records a screenshot to my computer. That might alleviate that issue.

@Quroe

The announcement you posted earlier in this thread is an interesting case.

I don't think I posted an announcement earlier? Don't follow.

To word it another way, if the site load crosses the threshold and enters the "burstable zone," but the host keeps the site running, and Manifold manages to recover without running out of burstable runtime credits, that's not a YES. However, if they say they had to restart the server, I would count that as a YES.

This is not my area so I don't know exactly what the "ping test" does/doesn't cover I just know that even when Manifold functionally breaks, often the webpage itself loads just fine—the problem is you can't load markets or place bets.

The most dramatic recent crash was when Biden dropped out—the huge flurry of activity broke the site for hours. As long as you will accept a discord acknowledgment of the issue, then this will resolve just fine, because when the site crashes it's almost always discussed by staff on the discord. Specifically, people ping "@outage", and typically staff reply.

But (1) the webpage itself often still nominally loads, even if for hours the site is functionally broken, and (2) they rarely acknowledge this outside of Discord (which they use for ~all official communication).

E.g. for the "we've had site issues for the past week" post by Ian that you linked, I have no idea if that would count. The site always loads, but sometimes you can't take any actions on the site. On Discord, staff have had to restart the server quite often (Ian even implemented an hourly restart at one point), or david when everyone else is asleep will "restart the API". No idea if that counts. I assume the major Biden crash would count, but mostly because the staff happened to be explicit that the site was down on Discord.

so tl;dr when a market refers to "will X happen" and I personally (as a year-long addict of the site) have no clue whether previous events would or wouldn't have counted as X, i would recommend people be careful about betting in this market. I genuinely don't know which crashes from the past year would have been sufficient to resolve this YES. If it's just "staff say on discord 'yup site borked we're restarting the API'" then that has happened dozens of times. If it's "the webpage itself displays nothing" I don't think that's ~ever happened.