I’d say yes, seeing the devastation of the current crash. Not buying any shares though because I’m broke.

Out of curiosity, did anybody ping it yesterday when this happened? I was in a bad cell signal area at the time, so I couldn't do any live personal ping tests.

I'm also guessing this happened at the instant Biden dropped out, right?

In the event of an outage, I think you might still get ping results back, but the actual webpage failing is a vercel 500 page, showing the backend service doesnt work

As described in the description and elsewhere in these comments, the standard for this market is a ping test, but there is a clause in the description that states if an official Manifold account makes a public statement somewhere that a crash occurred during the time frame, then that would override the ping test standard.

If the ping successfully pongs, and Manifold does not comment, then that's not a YES.

@traders Added clause for YES resolution allowing an official Manifold account to report an outage. See description.

As a software dev, seems like an easy NO. This thing just isn't a high resource usage system. It's not like it's trying to serve real time video, or do some crazy-complex calculations with every transaction.

Further, the resolution criteria use a down detection website, which will just be testing that the site loads. That is, it won't detect trades getting slow, or failing to complete (the most likely form of service degredation, IMO).

On the other hand, the app regularly pops a brief message about needing to be connected to the Internet to use it. I'm guessing some API call returns a bit slow, and the message is displayed in the meantime. That's a bit concerning, not because of the slow, but because it suggests there's not a strong emphasis on degrading gracefully.

Interesting point. I would imagine that this gray area would cause some discontentment about this market's resolution criteria if pings work but trades don't.

Even so, I will try to keep things crystal clear and unambiguous. The ping test is the standard for this market. User experience is not the standard.

However, I will carve out the following exception and ratify it into the description unless somebody can give me a reasonable reason not to by EOD Sunday June 23, 2024.

If an official Manifold account (higher than just a moderator) comments on this market or makes a public statement (such as a Tweet/X post) that they deem a crash to have positively happened during the stated timeframe, that would be considered a valid YES criteria.

Thoughts?

@Sinclair good confidence, ate up the rest of my limit. prove me wrong!

PSA this market gives an incentive for someone to run a DDoS on that day.

very minor incentive (liquidity-wise) probably outweighed by real traffic and the incentive to newstrade

but it's a fair point. the classic "is this assassination market worth the insight it provides?"

Yeah but buying a $1 booter subscription for a day is a lot easier than hiring a hit. I do agree the low liquidity makes it less likely.

Interesting point. But at this moment, unless I'm running my numbers wrong, I think outright buying $10 or $20 of Mana far exceeds how much mana you'd get by maxing out YES and spending the resources to crash the site... in that order.

If this happens anyways, I would imagine this would provide a pretty strong tip as to who may have caused it or is in the know. Probably not worth the extra attention.

Someone told me they have seriously discussing it with one of founders and they are building a massive infrastructure for supporting the traffic. They told me servers are based not in US, so very much open for manipulations, but I am confident in it all!