Will xAI have a model within 50 points of the leading model on the LMSYS leaderboard before May 2025?
Standard
21
Ṁ13kresolved Aug 23
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Leaderboard here.
If a model that could plausibly be within 50 points of the leading model has just been released but does not yet have a rating, I will wait for the rating.
If xAI is acquired or merges with another company, this will resolve 50%. If LMSYS is no longer displaying rankings or for some reason won't rank leading models, this will resolve 50%.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
36% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
50% chance
Will xAI release an LLM with BIG-Bench score as good as GPT-4 Turbo before the end of 2024?
76% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
56% chance
Will xAI have the most powerful AI by December 2024?
17% chance
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
57% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
40% chance
Will China have a model in the top 10 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena on March 1, 2025?
42% chance
Will openAI have the most accurate LLM across most benchmarks by EOY 2024?
39% chance
Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
65% chance