Manifold Sentiment Prediction (POTUS Election 2024)

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Ṁ12k

Oct 21

ALL

41%

Odds of Democrat victory rise to 60%

51%

Odds of Democrat victory rise to 59%

63%

Odds of Democrat victory rise to 58%

Use to be derivative of: /ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr-f4158bf9278a
Now is derivative of: /ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election

If Manifold Politics switches from that market to another one to promote as their primary advertised election market, this market's criteria will shift to be based on that new market. In that case there will be a cooldown period after the move during which this market's options can't resolve for 48 hours.

Each option resolves YES if the linked market displays the specified odds (or higher) FOR AT LEAST THREE HOURS.

Each remaining option resolves NO at this market's scheduled close date.

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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As per the description the underlying market has changed. The link to the new one is in the description

If you go to the US Election dashboard, https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election?play=true is now linked as the market for "Who will win the Presidential Election". Can you confirm this is now what this market is a derivative of?

Will Trump win the 2024 Election?

48% chance. This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election. If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise. Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted. If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.

@Tumbles

Yes you are correct, I have now updated the description

Preemptively, in case anyone brings this up, there is currently a bug in the graph of the presidential market showing it having been at D 61% for 10 hours, but if you take a look at the actual trading history it was only at these odds for less than an hour, reverting back to where it's currently trading (D 54-55), so this clearly does not fulfill the conditions of the markets still open here.

Has now been at 57% for 3 hours

the market has been at 57% for ~40 minutes

bought Ṁ325 Odds of Democrat vic... YES

@Tumbles Dem 56% Resolves YES.

@Tumbles

I've noticed a slight discrepancy between percentages displayed in the bar graph, the line graph, and the trading log. Which one are you using to resolve here?