Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
Basic
125
29k
in 9 hours
96%
Liar
95%
"Trump"
93%
"Look"
86%
"Drop out"
84%
"Donald"
84%
„The idea that”
83%
“Supreme Court”
76%
Number 1
74%
"Age"
70%
“Come on”
66%
"above the law"
65%
"Convicted felon"
64%
"Kamala" OR "Harris"
53%
"Knocked down"
50%
"Defend democracy
50%
"Obama"
50%
"I should say"
47%
"Democratic national convention" OR "DNC"
47%
“Malarkey”
45%
"Immunity"

These options resolve YES if Joe Biden says the exact sequence of words during his upcoming ABC interview with George Stephanopoulos. This follows the same rules as the debate market.

  • This market will close before the interview is released.

  • If the interview has not been released by July 15th, all options N/A.

  • It resolves based on the interview that we're shown—even if we find out some parts have been edited out, it only resolves if it's in the published part.

  • You can add your own responses, but note (1) I intend to be very strict with resolution (following the rules below), & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.

Resolution examples:

  • It needs to be the exact same words (in order): "shut the hell up" does not count for "shut up".

  • This includes verb tenses and pluralization: "We defended democracy" does not count for "defend democracy", and "convicted felons" does not count for "convicted felon".

  • However, any punctuation is fine: "Come on! Man, I..." counts for "come on, man", and "Folks. Folks, I..." counts for "folks, folks". What matters is that the words are said in sequence.

  • Similarly, any form of contraction counts: "c'mon, man" would count for "come on, man", and "here is the deal" would count for "here's the deal".

  • Broadly, different forms of writing the same word will count: "January sixth" counts for "January 6th".

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"Look"

@AliciaGrugett0537 Slightly edited this one to just be "Look", because under the rules I'm not doing punctuation so I'm assuming this is intended as just the word (don't want people to be confused). I don't want to rule what constitutes an exclamation mark in speech.

No worries.

@traders IIUC, the interview will now air Friday at 8pm ET, so I'll adjust the close time to allow trading for longer. (Some early preview clips might be shown, & people can news trade on that, but w/e).

This was a quick/last minute market, so it's got low liquidity, but these probabilities are mostly too high IMO so I've got NO limit orders at (or near) market price for ~most of these. LMK if you want more.

I'll wait to resolve until after the full transcript is available & I have time, which might take a day or two.

Ziddletwix How about

Kitchen table

And

Finish the job

You can add them!

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