Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
Basic
21
Ṁ1.4k2025
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes.
If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes.
I will not bet in this market.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?
41% chance
Will a LLM beat human experts on GPQA by Jan 1, 2025?
47% chance
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
52% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
81% chance
Will OpenAI be on the top of the Chatbot Arena's LLM Leaderboard until EOY 2024?
31% chance
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
38% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
18% chance
What organization will have the highest ELO score in the LMSYS Org Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of Dec, 2024?
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
27% chance
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena Ranks)?