Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
Plus
37
Ṁ9677Jan 1
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes.
If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes.
I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena Ranks)?
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
68% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
85% chance
Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
78% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
14% chance
Who will have the best Non-Tool Enabled LLM by the end of 2024 according to Chatbot arena?
Will any open source LLM with <20 billion parameters outperform GPT-4 on most language benchmarks by the end of 2024?
13% chance
Will an Open Source LLM Surpass any GPT-4 model in Elo Rating on Chatbot Arena on december 31, 2024?
96% chance