Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
➕
Plus
30
Ṁ6021
Jan 1
14%
chance

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

  • If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes.

  • If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes.

  • I will not bet in this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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Which version of GPT-4?

@maybe_a GPT-4-1106-preview

bought Ṁ50 YES

GPT-4-1106-preview has an Elo of 1250, and the top models are now above 1360, so this market is actually closer than I expected.

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