Will Joe Biden receive 92% or more of the black vote in the 2024 Presidential Election
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11
336
Dec 6
22%
chance

According to the Brookings Institute,

Joe Biden in 2020 received 92% of the black vote. Hillary Clinton in 2016 received 91%.

Will Joe Biden be able to repeat or exceed his 2020 result amongst black voters in 2024? If so, market will resolve YES. If the number dips below 92%, market will resolve as NO.

If Joe Biden is not the democratic nominee, market will resolve as NO

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I interpret this as the probability that Biden actually survive and is chosen to be the nominee, then additionally if he gets 92% more of the black votes.

@AlexanderLeirvag yes, if Biden does not survive, is not the nominee, or does not get 92% of the vote, the market resolves as NO

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