🏅 Top traders

Oh I thought you'd do a comment like "I'm planning to resolve..." so i could explain why it resolves YES

I did multiple of those

@jacksonpolack I meant on the last question

it's ok it's only manas

@mods I need you to resolve this as a yes. We have an inactive user here and it's been a week.

@jacksonpolack We are paying you too much as a question partner or whatever for this slow of a resolution. I need you to resolve this lickity split.

@Predictor his just trolling lol classic jp move

dw jim + predictor coalition cannot lose

most important think is not to get confused

It’s a yes, let’s get this show on the road big daddy.

@Predictor "And I'll tell you, as a prosecutor I never asked a victim or a witness are you a Republican or a Democrat. The only thing I ever asked them, are you okay?...My work that is related to having a friend when I was in high school who was sexually assaulted by her stepfather. And my focus then, on protecting women and children from violent crime"

@JuddRosenblatt This isn't about prosecuting a sexual offender. She's talking about a friend of hers getting assaulted, not about her prosecuting her stepfather.

@JuddRosenblatt "Protecting women and children from violent crime" is not the same as prosecuting sexual offenders.

@jacksonpolack Obamacare was mentioned by Trump and not Harris according to the transcript. No other mentions. I would assume this certainly resolves yes?

@PaperBoy It may very well resolve Yes, but not for that reason:

https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/first-trumpharris-debate-prop-bets#0n9cpurah6x

@PaperBoy Harris mentioned "the first Black president" who was Barrack Obama.

@Panfilo Yeah I commented without even seeing the war that had erupted in the comments below lol

@polymathematic went through all the trades during the debate (beginning at 9pm eastern and ending at 10:45 eastern, though i went to 11 eastern just to be safe). Trump started at 48% and the lowest he got during the debate was 46%. Harris started at 51% and the lowest she got was 51%. Measuring from their respective highs, the largest Harris changed was 2% (53-51) and the largest Trump changed was 2% (48-46). Was surprised, actually, at how little change there was within just a few minutes of the starts. Most of the trades throughout the debate occured at Harris 53% or Trump 46%.

"Kamala makes a new campaign promise/announces a new policy she supports" is high, but I didn't see a specific new promise/policy, does anyone think there was one?

I'm planning to resolve 2 second harris laugh YES and the longer laughs NO, based on this clip. https://www.youtube.com/live/q0pQ5NwciBo?si=L4EeqE_0Uj0DyP-J&t=1791 If you think that doesn't qualify for 2 seconds, or have an argument for 5 seconds, say so!

@jacksonpolack What are the exact timestamps in that video that you think the laugh begins and ends?

@biased I think 29:55 - 29:57?

@jacksonpolack Honestly don't think you can guarantee she's laughing during that time. She's definitely smiling, but I'm not sure about laughing.

@jacksonpolack If you keep watching that clip I think you can also use 31:06-31:09 where you can clearly hear her laugh for a few seconds.

@jacksonpolack The nickname questions should resolve No

@jacksonpolack Just for the meme, we're all agreeing that since this isn't in quotes, "Obamacare" counted? And for general reference as with the Biden mention resolution, a person can be directly mentioned without saying their name?

@Panfilo Because Trump said Obamacare a bunch, and this isn't the rules of the exact statement market, nor is it in quotes, and also Harris said "the first Black president." The McDonalds question also says "by name" and this one doesn't.

@Panfilo imo Harris “mentioned” but did not “say” Obama. Trump “mentioned” and “said” Obamacare but did not “mention” Obama

@Panfilo obama is a substring of obamacare so I think it counts

@blackle I don't think so, based on the rules linked in the market description

@blackle

wake up

open manifold

there is another obama/obamacare debate

never leaving this website

@AndrewG No debate here honestly, it's very clearly stated in the resolution criteria. The debate @Panfilo is presenting is akin to Trump saying Haitians are eating the cats. It really should be a no resolution.

@Predictor Yeah we agree.

@blackle I think

@ismellpillows is correct in this case.
Two possibilities here. Neither one supports the theory that both candidates mentioned Obama. A plain text search of "Obama" shows Trump saying Obamacare a bunch. While Harris does not, and therefore it resolves Yes.

However, if the condition is about President Obama himself, well... the dictionary definition of 'mention' is:

verb

1. refer to something briefly and without going into detail.

   "I haven't mentioned it to William yet"

   Similar:

noun

1. a reference to someone or something.

   "their eyes light up at a mention of Sartre"

Obamacare is now a nickname for the Affordable Care Act, and it's a separate a concept from Obama himself; The concepts are as separate as Butterflies are to Butter. Therefore Obama was not really referred to with the usage of "Obamacare" just as saying "Affordable Care Act" isn't a reference to Obama, saying Obamacare isn't a mention of Obama.

But what IS a mention of Obama, is Harris saying "birther lies about the first Black President of the United States". So I agree with @Panfilo that a person can be directly mentioned without saying their name.

I'll leave it in the capable hands of @jacksonpolack

@jacksonpolack Don't even try to finagle your way out of this one. It is 100% a no.

@Shihan

This is ambiguous, and from the description:

Many of the submitted options are somwhat ambiguous. As this is a "fun" market, I'm choosing to leave them up and resolve them in the most reasonable way possible, but it's inevitable there will be some disagreement on some of them.

Anyway,

birther lies about the first Black President of the United States

I believe that is a mention! From the word rules, "Mentioning" is not the same thing as "saying" - saying "Joe" in reference to Biden would count as mentioning biden."

I'm also leaning towards Obamacare not counting as a mention. It's the name of a policy. I think that could go either way though, and as a result I'm thinking about N/A.

@jacksonpolack In presidential debate rules, it would count as a mention for rebuttal purposes. Also, a separate question used "by name" and this one didn't. Also it didn't use quotes! And this isn't the verbatim "what will be said" market. The Affordable Care Act has a formal name that doesn't mention Obama, and an informal name that does mention Obama.

@Panfilo The rules say

"Mentioning" is not the same thing as "saying" - saying "Joe" in reference to Biden would count as mentioning biden. No difference between an option with a word in quotes and not.

So “mentioning” applies to concepts (not words), and Obama and Obamacare aren’t the same concept, which is why I don’t think the substring matters. The option doesn’t explicitly specify Obamacare counts like the other one. So no mention by Trump.

(lawyering, so ok with N/A too)