I want to take a short-term position against people's pessimism.
This market resolves YES if the IMO Gold Before 2025 Market (https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat) spends more than half of the time (potentially non-contiguous) of a 1-month window above 30% between late April 2024 and August 2024 (window can begin anytime in the next 3 months).
If this seems very unlikely to you, take my money. If you're afraid to buy this market down, maybe you should reconsider how you're pricing the underlying asset...
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I'm realizing there's a discrepancy in how the question was written. I intended for the 1-month window to include August 2024, to give time for the window to begin after the IMO, but the title and closing time is by August. Since I'm the only YES holder and question writer, I'll respect the more conservative "before August" in the question framing. I've edited the description to indicate this.