Will the Democratic candidate get at least this many electoral votes from these 7 swing states?

Basic

Ṁ3996

Nov 5

99.0%

79%

80%

79%

77%

76%

74%

73%

74%

72%

71%

70%

71%

In the map below, seven states are marked as "Toss-up": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

This question resolves YES for all numbers at and below the total number of electoral college votes among those states of these which the Democratic candidate wins.

Please provide answers in the form of whole numbers between 0 and 94. Other numbers are subject to N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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bought Ṁ2 19 YES

Omg I spoke too soon, fees on manifold are zero now so go wild.

reposted

This is an excellent market and I don't know how I hadn't seen it before.

bought Ṁ5 Answer #79e5d1a96069 NO

@EvanDaniel A different market on the same set of states:

/EvanDaniel/close-states-how-many-of-7-will-vot

@EvanDaniel I originally made it as part of a network of markets for arbitrage of the top line POTUS outcome and state outcomes, but fees are higher now and I’m not sure how well it works for that anymore 🫤. One of these outcomes should still be pretty closely arbable with the big one.

@BoltonBailey Yeah, the lack of loans hurts arb plans as well.

What's the purpose of the 0 and 94 answers, which are guaranteed to resolve YES and NO respectively?

@Pykess Indeed, these do resolve with certainty to those outcomes. I added them just as a sort of convenience for some of my arb strategies described in this post, though they aren't strictly necessary.

Update: Added a space to "0" and "6" so now hopefully A-Z sorting should work

Great question!

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