If someone says something like, “Biden shouldn’t step down but if he does then I should be the presidential nominee” (much like Cruz Bustamante in the 2003 California recall), that doesn’t count.
The deadline here is Election Day — or, if Biden announces he is actually dropping out, it must be before that.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
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Yes, Jonagold is correct.
^This is the kind of thing I was thinking of. Any other prominent pundits out there who haven't already done it already?
Does it count if they come out in support after Biden has dropped out?
E.g. I could imagine Kamala not saying anything, but then if Biden drops out and she steps in, it wouldn't be surprising if she said something about how she supported his decision. But that's a bit different in spirit/tone than actually coming out in support of him dropping out before he's done so.
It must be before Biden officially announces that he is dropping out. Sorry that wasn’t clear! I’ll edit the description.