How will a plurality of Manifold vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
Plus
20
Ṁ1487Nov 5
98%
Democrat
2.0%
Republican
0.0%
Alliance
0.0%
Constitution
0.0%
Green
0.3%
Libertarian
0.0%
An independent candidate
After the election, I will poll Manifold users to ask how they voted, and resolve this market to whichever party got the most votes in that poll.
The poll will not be anonymous, and if I find out that anyone answered the poll differently from how they actually voted, I will consider that dishonorable. Realistically though, I have no way to enforce accurate voting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@IsaacKing this market seems to imply that at least some serious fraction of Destiny's supporters like Democrat Raphael Warnock
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
8% chance
How Many States Will Manifold Correctly Predict During the 2024 Presidential Election?
Will Manifold correctly call every state and district in the 2024 election? If not, how many do we get wrong?
🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
Who will be Manifold's 2024 Person of The Year?
How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
51% chance
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
What fraction of Manifold users who vote for one of the majority parties in the 2024 election will vote Republican?
20% chance