How will a plurality of Manifold vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
Standard
19
Ṁ1484Nov 5
1D
1W
1M
ALL
98.9%
Democrat
0.1%
Republican
0%
Alliance
0%
Constitution
0.4%
Green
0.6%
Libertarian
0%
An independent candidate
After the election, I will poll Manifold users to ask how they voted, and resolve this market to whichever party got the most votes in that poll.
The poll will not be anonymous, and if I find out that anyone answered the poll differently from how they actually voted, I will consider that dishonorable. Realistically though, I have no way to enforce accurate voting.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
@IsaacKing this market seems to imply that at least some serious fraction of Destiny's supporters like Democrat Raphael Warnock
Related questions
Related questions
Who will be Manifold's 2024 Person of The Year?
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? #2
Who will win the Manifold 2016 presidential primary?
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
42% chance
How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?
What fraction of Manifold users who vote for one of the majority parties in the 2024 election will vote Republican?
20% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
50% chance