@KrilariaSpace Do the currently-planned test flights, if they fly on the planned trajectory, count as "orbital" for the purposes of this question, or do you need it to complete a full orbit?

@chrisjbillington Flight to Havaii is count

@KrilariaSpace Does a flight to the Indian Ocean count?

It hasn't reached space once yet and already failed once, so isn't 60% kind of high for an unproven vehicle? I know SpaceX is confident but I hope I'm wrong on betting NO.

There's a whole year and then some to go though!

@Mqrius Brainfart. Read it as 2023. Spend enough time in the manifold and I hallucinate.

It happens! There's few different markets that are for 2023, if you want those.

/ACXBot/40-will-spacexs-starship-reach-orbi

/a/spacexs-starship-will-reach-orbit-i

/jack/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023

I assume more than 2 times resolves this as Yes?

@Mqrius of course you are right)