Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? [More Answers]
Basic
84
17k
Nov 11
66%
Gretchen Whitmer
64%
Andy Beshear
55%
Josh Shapiro
51%
Raphael Warnock
49%
Jared Polis
48%
Pete Buttigieg
44%
Michelle Obama
43%
Kamala Harris
41%
J. B. Pritzker
38%
Hakeem Jeffries
37%
Joe Biden
35%
Gavin Newsom

An option resolves Yes if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and wins the presidential election.

An option resolves No if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and loses the presidential election.

An option resolves N/A if that person is not the 2024 Democratic Party nominee.

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bought Ṁ50 Michelle Obama YES

Can we see a progressive on this list? Maybe Bernie, AOC, Ro Khanna...

You don't need to add them all, but I'm curious how one would stack up.

Data For Progress ran a poll the day after the debate:
Whitmer and Booker are down 2 points in a one-on-one matchup against Trump, while Biden, Harris, Newsom, Pritzker, Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Klobuchar are all down 3 points.


And for net favorability you have Booker (+6), Klobuchar (+5), Buttigieg (+2), Shapiro (+2), Whitmer (+1), Pritzker (-3), Harris (-7), Newsom (-9), and Biden (-10)

this market is a dumb stonk

opened a Ṁ1,000 Andy Beshear NO at 75% order

@ManifoldPolitics this market deserves more liquidity!

Somewhat telling that most often talked about replacements are also the ones who are lowest on this market

Genius, the only one doing worse than Joe is Kamala

opened a Ṁ1,000 J. B. Pritzker NO at 41% order

Just put down 10k in limit orders on this really crucial market!

sold Ṁ56 J. B. Pritzker NO

@ManifoldPolitics Maybe add Roy Cooper to this?

bought Ṁ100 Gavin Newsom NO

Very decision-relevant market that I wish had more traders