Will Russian forces control majority of Chasiv Yar by November 5th, according to pro-Ukrainian mapper DeepStateMAP?
Basic
7
401
Nov 6
61%
chance

As of July 4th, there are reports about Ukrainian forces withdrawing from parts of Chasiv Yar in the face of Russian offensive.

https://deepnewz.com/ukraine/ukrainian-forces-withdraw-chasiv-yar-eastern-donetsk

According to the pro-Ukrainian but fair-minded mappers at DeepStateMAP, the boundary between Russian and Ukrainian control is just east of the city.

https://deepstatemap.live/en"#13/48.5756985/37.8414631

The market will resolve YES if by November 5th (US elections) the Russian forces are shown to control more than half of the city.

Chasiv Yar is on an important hilltop, in an otherwise flat region. Hence controlling the hill and the center of the city is what's at stake.

Unlike other markets, if the DeepStateMAP shows that Russian forces are controlling this area for a substantial period of time, we may resolve the market early. We will not wait until November 5th in that case to see if Ukrainian forces take it back.

In the vast majority of cases the resolution would be clear. We say "majority of the city" according to the line above, to avoid confusion around remaining fighting in the outskirts, as happened in Bakhmut, Avdeevka, etc.

We will use the "solid red" as shown above in the DeepStateMAP. Which is fair minded but somewhat conservative when applying the label to territory that changes control between Russian and Ukrainian forces.

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bought Ṁ69 NO

Related market here -- but for September 1st
https://manifold.markets/HakonEgsetHarnes/will-russia-control-chasiv-yar-by-s

"Fortress Chasiv Yar" is quite small. But well fortified and strategically important. The assault could take a while, or Russian forces could be defeated or withdraw the assault of course.