Please feel free to add responses!
If Biden loses the general election, then in mid-late November 2024, I will post a poll to manifold with the title “What is the main reason Biden lost”. The poll will have corresponding options to the answers to this question when it closes. Each answer to this question will resolve to the percentage it receives in the poll (both should end up summing to 100) I will extend the market and the poll date if the election is not resolved.
If he wins, or if he drops out before becoming the nominee, or dies/becomes incapacitated before the election after becoming the nominee, I will ask a mod to resolve N/A
Related questions
@PaperBoy If Biden drops out of the election, will you post a poll as well? Or would you resolve this to N/A?
I think based on the description I originally wrote. “losing the general election” implies he’s the nominee. So in fairness I think I’d have to get a mod to N/A it. It’s a fair ask though. When I made the question I assumed it was essentially certain that he was going to be the nominee which wasn’t a great assumption
@BrunoJ Maybe if he wins I’ll just resolve each option to the percentage equivalent of 100/(number of answers). So if there are 10 answers and he wins I would resolve each to 10%