This will resolve to YES if Rishi Sunak is replaced as Prime Minister for any reason before 1st October 2024.
The main reasons why a Prime Minister would be replaced:
If General Election is held and Sunak no longer has the support of the majoirty of the House after the election, he would be expected to resign and the King will invite someone else to form a Government
If Sunak is replaced as the leader of the Conservative Party, there is a party split or he loses the confidence of the majority of the house for any other reason, he would be expected to resign and the King will invite someone else to form a Government
If Sunak is incapacitated, the King may invite someone else to form a Government
Note that if any of these scenarios occurs, he continues to be Prime Minister until the King accepts his resignation. When Gordon Brown lost the General Election onn 6th May 2010, he still served as Prime Minister for another few days until his resignation and David Cameron's appointment on 11th May.
If Sunak is incapacitated and someone else (such as the Deputy Prime Minister) takes over his duties without being formally appointed as Prime Minister, that will not be enough to satisfy the requirements for this market.
More information about the constitutional process is here:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/how-is-a-prime-minister-appointed/
Related questions
The election has been called for 4th July. So this long-lived market has become a market on whether Sunak will do well enough in the election to cling on as PM and for three months afterwards…
Thanks to @ManifoldPolitics for adding a large subsidy to this market!
@IsarBhattacharjee If you think there’s a serious chance of that happening, you can predict on this market!
/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
@n1psey Election must happen before Feb 2025. Uk governments generally avoid winter elections, so October is the latest they can go to avoid that. If the current gov are only falling in the polls then an early election may ensure they still have plenty of MPs in opposition. TBH I think this market is underpriced, especially looking at the below.