How much of the popular vote will the Libertarian Party's candidate win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?

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Ṁ17k

Dec 12

99%

More than 00.04% (what Kanye West won in the 2020 election)

99%

More than 00.15% (what Darrell L. Castle (Constitution Party) won in the 2016 election)

98.9%

More than 00.21% (what Roger MacBride won in the 1976 election)

98.8%

More than 00.25% (what David Bergland won in the 1984 election)

99%

More than 00.28% (what Andrew Marrou won in the 1992 election)

98%

More than 00.32% (what Michael Badnarik won in the 2004 election)

92%

More than 00.36% (what Harry Browne won in the 1976 election)

93%

More than 00.40% (what Bob Barr won in the 2008 election)

79%

More than 00.47% (what Ron Paul won in the 1988 election)

56%

More than 00.50% (what Harry Browne won in the 1996 election)

35%

More than 00.56% (what Ralph Nader won in the 2008 election)

1.3%

More than 00.71% (what Ralph Nader (Green Party) won in the 1996 election)

1.4%

More than 00.91% (what Eugene McCarthy won in the 1976 election)

1.5%

More than 00.99% (what Gary Johnson won in the 2012 election)

1.3%

More than 01.06% (what Edward Clark won in the 1980 election)

1.4%

More than 01.18% (what Jo Jorgensen won in the 2008 election)

1.5%

More than 01.42% (what John Schmitz (American Party) won in the 1972 election)

1.5%

More than 01.75%

1.4%

More than 01.95% (what William Lemke (Union Party) won in the 1936 election)

1.2%

More than 02.23% (what Norman Thomas (Socialist Party) won in the 1932 election)

This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about the Libertarian Party's bid to their previous election results (and some other previous third party bids)

Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election according to Dave Leip's numbers - e.g. the Jo Jorgensen answer should not be taken as 1.18% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total she actually got according to Dave Leip's numbers (e.g. in that case 1,865,926/158,594,895)

Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Libertarianism

#Third Parties

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1,000

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The LP is going to do much worse than usual because they have to compete with RFK. He's the one who will be getting all the, "I don't like the other two candidates," votes, which is the LP's main base of support. Even party members are predicting that they will get less than half a percent: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/26/libertarians-reject-trump-rfk-chase-oliver-presidential-nominee-00160040

The LP has ballot access in 38 states so far and last election they secured all 50

@thepurplebull if they got 50 last time.. and the RFK movement is much bigger.... how is this market so low?
https://manifold.markets/GavenWolfgang/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-achieve-ba

/option "Enough that they'll realize they don't make any difference and stop trying"

They’ve invited RFK Jr and Trump to their convention, without hinting at who their candidate is. It’s very possible they don’t run a candidate.

@CharlieBauer oh yeah, I forgot the ultra-evil Mises caucus had taken over.

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