Depending on the POTUS election winner, will @Tumbles be late to pay back a loan (before EOY)? | Manifold

Depending on the POTUS election winner, will @Tumbles be late to pay back a loan (before EOY)?

Basic

12

Ṁ6709

Jan 1

10%

Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan

84%

Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles is never late on a loan

1.5%

Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan

1.3%

Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles is never late on a loan

2%

Someone else wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan

0.7%

Someone else wins the election, Tumbles is never late on a loan

The first condition resolves based on the preponderance of news coverage reporting the winner of the 2024 POTUS Election. "Someone Else" refers to someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump winning the election (e.g. other candidates are nominated, death, disqualified, etc.).

The second condition resolves based on whether @Tumbles has been late on any loan between market creation and December 31, 2024 @11:59:59 PM (EST). The primary source to resolve this is here, but if that market is closed, deleted, or there is strong evidence to the contrary additional evidence will be considered.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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The market creator is a banned troll, and I am not betting in this market. Don't look at me if it gets misresolved

Please don't duplicate other markets for no particular reason!

Unsubsidized for being a duplicate of an existing market:

/bluefrog/depending-on-the-2024-potus-electio

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Depending on the POTUS election winner, will @Tumbles be late to pay back a loan (before EOY)?

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