Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
Premium
45
Ṁ12k2025
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democracy.
Group 1 drone outlined in this article https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-america-fell-behind-in-drones
Direct quote from Dominic Cummings: "There is no anti drone plan for the cabinet office" https://youtu.be/C-HhIfpBdoQ?si=rk6oS9AfgfJ7VWEk
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will anyone in the United States be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
6% chance
Will a civilian be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
42% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?
24% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
42% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
74% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?
22% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
41% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
24% chance
Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024?
11% chance