Will Dr. Allan Lichtman’s prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if the following two events occur:

1. Dr. Allan Lichtman makes a prediction about the 2024 US Presidential Election, specifically the winner as measured by apportioned electoral college votes won. The prediction is scheduled to be announced by Dr. Lichtman on his YouTube channel after August 18, 2024 and before September 1, 2024.

2. Dr. Lichtman's prediction is correct.

If Lichtman's prediction of the electoral college winner of the US Presidential Election turns out to be incorrect, this question resolves as No.

If Lichtman does not make his prediction before September 1, 2024, this question will be annulled.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

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