US '24

Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

50%

Joe Biden

49%

Donald Trump

0.4%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

0.1%

Kamala Harris

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#2024 US Presidential Election

Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?78% chance

#2024 US Election

#US Congressional Elections 2024

Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?60% chance

#US Congressional Elections 2024

#2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

If Trump becomes President, will he "Make America Great Again" by the midterms? [Gallup Polling > Obama]38% chance

#Conditional markets

Will the 2024 US presidential election be extremely close (within 100,000 votes for electors to the Electoral College)?50% chance

Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (RCP Average Trump +1.1%)

23%

June

22%

July

16%

August

15%

Not before Election Day

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#2024 US Presidential Election

What will be the Electoral College margin in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

1.4%

D by 215+

5%

D by 155-214

2%

D by 105-154

10%

D by 65-104

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#2024 US Presidential Election

Who will win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?

95%

Joe Biden

2%

Gavin Newsom

1.1%

Kamala Harris

0.8%

A Candidate Not Listed Here

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#Democratic Party

#2024 US Presidential Election

If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?

78%

"lower taxes"

71%

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

66%

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

60%

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

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#2024 US Presidential Election

#Republican Party

How many Senate seats will Republicans control after the 2024 elections?

6%

48 or fewer

10%

49

18%

50

19%

51

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#2024 US Election

#US Congressional Elections 2024

Will SCOTUS reverse the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to bar Trump from the ballot? YES

#Republican Party

Will Nikki Haley drop out before the South Carolina primary?NO

#2024 US Presidential Election

#2024 Republican Primaries

Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)

17%

Tim Scott (SC Senator )

15%

J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)

14%

Marco Rubio (Florida Senator)

13%

Doug Burgum (ND Governor)

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#2024 US Presidential Election

Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? [Top 6 candidates, new market style]

97%

Donald Trump

0.2%

Ron DeSantis

0%

Tim Scott

2%

Nikki Haley

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#Republican Party

#2024 US Presidential Election

Will the Supreme Court make any decision on the Trump Colorado ballot before March 2024?NO

#Republican Party

Who will still be in the Republican primary on Super Tuesday (March 5, 2024)?

Resolved

YES

Donald Trump

Resolved

YES

Nikki Haley

Resolved

NO

Ron DeSantis

Resolved

NO

Vivek Ramaswamy

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#2024 US Presidential Election

Will the independent run of RFK Jr hurt Democrats more than Republicans?47% chance

#Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

#2024 US Presidential Election

#2024 US Election

Democratic congressman Dean Phillips launches primary challenge against Biden

Decision by little known Minnesota representative has led to criticism from many of his colleagues

Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?80% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

Will RFK Jr. end up running as an Independent in 2024?89% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election