Will Israel control Rafah by the end of July?
Basic
84
Ṁ9.3kAug 1
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve YES if there is a media consensus that Israel controls the vast majority of Rafah by the end of July.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
https://x.com/udschachter/status/1795496777548022271
An Israeli general predicts they will control Rafah in about a month(i.e by about June 28th), so I give good odds they'll control it by the end of July
Related questions
Will Israel control Rafah by the end of September?
88% chance
Will Israel annex Gaza City by the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will Israel unambiguously escalate to a "full-scale" Rafah Offensive before July, according to Wikipedia?
4% chance
Will Israel annex Gaza by the end of 2024?
10% chance
Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?
26% chance
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July?
13% chance
Will Egypt control the Gaza Strip by the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will the IDF invade Rafah even if a hostage deal is reached beforehand?
66% chance
Will Israel annex the Rafah district of Gaza by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will Hamas control >50% of Gaza at the end of 2024?
13% chance