Will Trump be in a US (state or federal) jail or prison at 12:01 AM on Election Day 2024? | Manifold

Will Trump be in a US (state or federal) jail or prison at 12:01 AM on Election Day 2024?

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This result seems very inconsistent with the related market. People think there’s only a 20% chance that he’ll actually be incarcerated if he’s convicted by then? Seems implausible.

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