Will Manifold (Closed Markets) outperform Matthew Yglesias? Live Tracking
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Plus
19
Ṁ839
Jan 1
89%
chance

I ran markets (see below) that closed on 1/14 to capture Manifold predictions vs those that Matt Yglesias made. I will track and update as those markets resolve. If Manifold has a better (lower) Brier score at the end of the year, this resolves "YES", if Matt Yglesias performs better then this resolves "NO". I missed a couple of questions, so they have been skipped over and won't count of either sides Brier score.

Tracked Here

@Shump also has a similar market (that manually noted the question percentage on 1/14 instead of closing):

/Shump/will-manifold-outperform-matthew-yg

Markets that are included:

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-8bfb98574714

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-266b7c2aa162

/Shump/matt-yglesias-2024-predictions-will

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a24b9014b67a

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-0994fc1d699e

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ac337f7734b3

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-47298b074b97

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-97d55af70294

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-8b251cd5bc4f

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ba76519d45af

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-fd46bbc32368

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-95db16a729f4

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-067357ab53fd

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ad74302ba5d6

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-4370c0740718

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a490a278e242

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-ea8ffb76804f

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ad7891475f27

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-8584a119051

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-f855cd3ce262

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-7bb6a3d7da13

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-2beb38c759ad

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-febcd1471c20

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-600cdfbe56c3

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-c61a3d273601

/Shump/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-a

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-0555d8210285

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-8b8700148e14

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-224f6a599675

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a6f929156715

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a50544dfe80a

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-e381533ea45d

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-9a1cfa16e036

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-b081b56f0485

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-204ef9f81ea7

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With Putin and the Social Democratic Party win in Portugal added, Manifold still leads 0.041 to 0.112

That KMT prediction was terrible

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