The question resolves to PROB=x/20 where x is the number of the correct predictions out of the main 20 published by Financial Times. The question closes on Dec. 30, 2024, and I will resolve it when I get to the FT write-up.

https://www.ft.com/content/7eef99e6-6bd5-4e84-85c1-ec77cc0671af

The predictions:

Will Donald Trump become US president again? No.

Will 2024 surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record? Yes.

Will the Israel-Hamas war trigger a full-blown regional conflict? No.

Will the US achieve a soft landing? Yes.

Will Keir Starmer become UK prime minister? Yes.

Will China’s economic growth crash to 3 percent or less? No.

Will a change of president in Taiwan spark a Chinese attack? No.

Will the US and the EU keep funding Ukraine? Yes.

Will Ursula von der Leyen secure a second term as European Commission president? Yes.

Will the Bank of Japan raise rates above zero? No.

Will the ANC vote fall below 50 percent in South Africa’s election? Yes.

Will Argentina dollarise its economy? No.

Will renewables overtake coal in global electricity generation? No.

Will investors go heavily back into bonds? Yes.

Will X go bankrupt? Yes.

Will Sam Altman be sacked again from OpenAI? No.

Will capital markets reopen for IPOs? Yes.

Will Novo Nordisk end the year as Europe’s most valuable company? Yes.

Will female pop stars out-earn the men in concert tours? No.

Will Britain return the Parthenon marbles to Greece? Yes.