⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2024? (16 DONE)

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155

Ṁ68k

Jan 1

46%

next version of Chat GPT (4.5 or 5) releases to the general userbase

34%

Manifold (the company) announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc

27%

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

27%

Rust (game) adds pets to the official servers

27%

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

26%

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

25%

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

22%

Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage

22%

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

22%

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

19%

Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)

17%

Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

16%

Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users

16%

Manifold reaches 12,000 Monthly active users

12%

Twitter gets a new CEO

Israel and Hamas announce an end to immediate hostilities (not just a temporary ceasefire)

2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses before EOY

Bitcoin BTC drops below $30K USD

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@strutheo 25 Aug 2022

^ ?

https://store.steampowered.com/app/2291060/EARTH_DEFENSE_FORCE_6/

Yeah I know, but it didn't mention steam. Anyway are you resolving it as 25 July 2024?

Oh woops. Yes I meant steam. Yes that day

@strutheo You said yes, but not resolved for a while.

reposted

releases in 2-3 days

bought Ṁ100 Answer #dde7dac78cd5 YES

earth defense force 6 release date - july 25 announced

bought Ṁ250 Answer #d8e88e86ab05 YES

Hades 2 is out this morning!

seem like quite a lot of unboxings, so I think this can resolve

bought Ṁ200 Answer #39c981c92e63 YES

This should resolve YES:
https://llama.meta.com/llama3/

bought Ṁ2,700 Answer #9e04632b8323 YES

reached

reposted

april bump

bought Ṁ1,130 Answer #286b73251f3b YES

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/tesla-battery-catches-fire-illinois-shutting-down-highway-hours-report

next version of Chat GPT (4.5 or 5) releases to the general userbase

If OpenAI releases a major successor to GPT-4, but it is not called GPT-5, will this resolve YES?

@chris if they call it 4.5 or 5 ill resolve yes, but not if it is just a small improvement on 4 itself

bought Ṁ100 Answer #ba098a31b073 NO

@strutheo How about if they call it something completely new (new naming scheme)

i think 4o is .5-like enough for this to resolve yes, at least when the voice modality is made available

reddit IPO is 7th

bought Ṁ20 Answer #7be5b9eaa869 YES

6/20 complete now

Over 6.8M

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

After 85 "This will be my final Chris Chan doc for a good long while, possibly a year or longer."

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

In the world? Does that mean an Ioquake could qualify? Or is that ruled out by using term earthquake? Anyway it is not likely that we get a measurement. So really wondering if this should say on Earth rather than in the world.

@ChristopherRandles world = earth here lol

bought Ṁ2,000 Answer #dead0a353482 YES

here's.... ANOTHER ONE

@strutheo ^

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