There are two Manifold polls posted, which both close on July 6. One of the polls asks Manifold respondents to vote with Joe Biden on a hypothetical ballot, and another asks respondents to vote with a generic Democrat on the hypothetical ballot.
Public opinion polls consistently show Joe Biden losing to Donald Trump outside the margin of error, but every other Democrat hypothetically surveyed polls ahead or within the margin of error. Are Manifold respondents representative of the general public?
This market will resolve YES if the percentage of votes for Donald Trump in poll 1 exceeds that in poll 2 by 3% or more when both polls close.
The formula for determining the percentage of votes for Trump is (Trump / (Trump + (the Democrat in the question) + Someone else)). The answer is YES if this formula for poll 1 - the formula for poll 2 >= 0.03. Otherwise, it is NO.
The polls and this question will never resolve N/A, and will remain open until the close time no matter what.
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In the poll with Joe Biden included, Trump scores 13.
In the poll with a generic Democrat, Trump scores 21.
Among Manifold respondents, Trump's gain of 8% is greater than the gain of 3% he made in general offline post-debate polls, and therefore, the market resolves to YES.
The title asks "Facing Joe Biden instead of a generic Democrat, will Trump gain at least 3% among Manifold respondents?" but the description says "This market will resolve YES if the percentage of votes for Donald Trump in poll 2 (facing a generic Democrat other than Joe Biden) exceeds that in poll 1 by 3% or more when both polls close." – Which one is the intended condition?