AI Doom

The case for taking AI seriously as a threat to humanity

Why some people fear AI, explained.

Mini

P(Doom) - Dario Amodei25

Mini

P(Doom) - Emmett Shear36

Mini

P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio35

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?32% chance

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?41% chance

Plus

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?43% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

#Mechanistic interpretability

Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)18% chance

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?25% chance

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?28% chance

#Mechanistic interpretability

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2024?6% chance

MIT Technology Review

Now we know what OpenAI’s superalignment team has been up to

The firm wants to prevent a superintelligence from going rogue. This is the first step.

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?5% chance

Will Superalignment succeed, according to Eliezer Yudkowsky?NO

Will OpenAI's Superalignment project produce a significant breakthrough in alignment research before 2027?NO

#Alignment Research Agendas

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