🦃What will happen in November 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
➕
Plus
124
Ṁ41k
Dec 1
60%
>=30% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in the monthly poll
57%
At least one share of nVidia stock is traded for greater than or equal to $150.00 during premarket, aftermarket, or normal trading hours
27%
Manifold reaches a peak in site traffic
21%
A lawsuit regarding the presidential election results is filed
16%
Novak Djokovic mentions Nova Scotia, supernovae, novels, embers, or embryos on social media
9%
kamala gives an interview post election loss
5%
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
5%
taylor swift announces pregnancy or engagement or wedding
5%
Taylor Swift breaks up with Travis Kelce
5%
usa troops set foot in lebanon
5%
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
4%
usa bombs or missle strikes or has troops conduct operations in iran
4%
2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc
4%
Eagles have the most wins in the NFL
4%
8.0+ magnitude earthquake
3%
Weak AGI exists, as indicated by the Metaculus market on the topic having resolved YES any time before the end of the month
2%
Jay and Dope win in the 65-state sweep detailed here: https://substack.com/profile/112100096-plasma-bloggin/note/c-65526578
2%
Trump is in Venezuela
2%
Turnout will be over 160 million in the US presidential election
2%
twitter releases peer to peer payment system to USA members, paid or unpaid users

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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A lawsuit regarding the presidential election results is filed

@JamesF @strutheo

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/rnc-fights-illegal-ballot-counting-in-pennsylvania
This seems about a senate election. Does that mean it does not count and the lawsuit has to be about presidential election to count for this question?

Can we get a resolution on these election questions?

kamala gives an interview post election loss
bought Ṁ50 kamala gives an inte... NO

@strutheo i think she might be busy doing last-minute vice-presidential type stuff but who's to say really

Manifold reaches a peak in site traffic

Do we have a good measurement for this? I would have expected election night to be a peak.

@ChrisMillsc5f7 That is 11 February not November 2nd
"Latest update: Feb. 17, 2024"
Link says "Posted: Feb 11, 2024 / 01:05 PM PST"

However
https://people.com/4-killed-after-tesla-crash-sparks-fire-in-toronto-8743464

bought Ṁ736 Answer #5b7c7f2137fb YES

@strutheo
High 18,907.80
52-wk high 18,907.80

Looks like an all time high:

Intraday18,785.49 Thursday, October 3, 1974

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-500-futures-soar-record-high-after-trump-claims-victory-2024-11-06/
All three major indexes hit record highs

bought Ṁ600 Answer #5b288a21cd12 YES

@JamesF I assume this is 6AM ET

https://apnews.com/live/trump-harris-election-updates-11-5-2024
10:35 AM GMT

AP Race Call: Donald Trump elected 47th president of the United States

10:35 GMT = 5:35 ET

bought Ṁ150 Answer #3b48832658bf NO

@SteveSokolowski I assume this refers to the US President?

bought Ṁ5 Eagles have the most... NO

How is "Jon Tester reelected" higher than "Democrats hold the Senate?" That doesn't make sense and is inconsistent.

That's perfectly reasonable. John Tester could be reelected with another Democratic incumbent losing their election (e.g., Sherrod Brown), which would still lead to Democrats losing the Senate. But it's almost impossible for them to win the Senate without John Tester.

chris @strutheo , there is another nVidia stock price here that you forgot to divide by ten.

bought Ṁ50 Trump is in Venezuela NO

I presume "Recount in Pennsylvania" only resolves YES if it's a recount for the Presidential race? There's bound to be some downballot recounts, but I don't think that was the intent.

sold Ṁ9 Answer #1598a1a024ed YES

chris @strutheo , here's another of those "Joe Biden elected President" markets that you haven't resolved yet.

I'm not wasting my time on these markets anymore. I've followed your rules, @strutheo , and not added meta-market questions, and you keep wasting my time by closing questions.

Good luck. I'll be betting somewhere else.

@SteveSokolowski hey @SteveSokolowski , you add a lot of questions in advance which i am ok with, but i do choose to NA a few of them, because they are usually something that will sit at 99% for the next 10 months and don't strike me as interesting. i do have the right to NA any for any reason, as wrote in the description.

@SteveSokolowski no worries, they'll be here for you if you return!

@SteveSokolowski dude you have added SO MANY questions across all the month markets, i only NAed a few, leave some slots for the other people too, there are only 100 per question, and they're going to get filled up fast

@SteveSokolowski i just realized, maybe you arent seeing my comments when i NA them on the other markets

Understandable to NA if you don't want the same question on each one. Funny enough, November is probably the most likely month 😅 not that any of them are going to happen of course

Don't want to deal with this question? Lol

@Kraalnaxx i feel after 10 months of this one it will get old

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