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Manifold AI
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
cshunter
Plus
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?
38%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
142
Ṁ1165
Matthew Barnett
Plus
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
23%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
283
Ṁ2490
MP
Plus
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
62%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
1427
Ṁ4425
Matthew Barnett
Plus
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
76%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
268
Ṁ2445
Metaculus Bot
Bot
Plus
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
75%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
135
Ṁ1705
Vincent Luczkow
Plus
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
51%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
57
Ṁ1215
Matthew Barnett
Premium
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
61%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
548
Ṁ13k
Bolton Bailey
Plus
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
84%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
337
Ṁ1810
Austin
Crystal
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
72%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
2576
Ṁ100k
NoUsernameSelected
Plus
Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?
12%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
232
Ṁ1990
Vincent Luczkow
Plus
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
61%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
99
Ṁ1205
Scott Alexander
Plus
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
79%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
436
Ṁ2420
Vincent Luczkow
Plus
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
23%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
46
Ṁ1000
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