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Figure Status Update - OpenAI Speech-to-Speech Reasoning
cshunter
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?
30%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Culture
#
Video Games
#
AI
114
Ṁ1.2k
Matthew Barnett
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
16%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
276
Ṁ2.5k
MP
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
50%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technology
#
AI
#
Technical AI Timelines
1038
Ṁ4.4k
Matthew Barnett
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
72%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Mathematics
#
AI
257
Ṁ2.4k
Metaculus Bot
Bot
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
74%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
130
Ṁ1.7k
Vincent Luczkow
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
43%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technical AI Timelines
#
AI
56
Ṁ1.2k
Matthew Barnett
Plus
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
35%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Showcase
#
Robotics
#
AI
477
Ṁ13k
Bolton Bailey
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by 2025?
52%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
IMO Grand Challenge
#
AI
#
Technical AI Timelines
257
Ṁ1.8k
Austin
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
23%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
Technology
#
Technical AI Timelines
1925
Ṁ7.9k
NoUsernameSelected
Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?
18%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
Gaming
#
Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI
227
Ṁ2k
Vincent Luczkow
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
67%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technical AI Timelines
#
AI
#
Programming
87
Ṁ1.2k
Scott Alexander
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
70%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
ACX
#
Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions
415
Ṁ2.4k
Vincent Luczkow
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
29%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
Mathematics
45
Ṁ1k
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